国内正在被igofx搞得草木皆兵，事实上，这只是冰山的一角。
外汇外盘从来都是鱼龙混杂，远的铁汇不谈，近的海星、igofx之流，还有很多随时可能出问题的平台，综合比较，IQOPTION算外汇期权交易领域比较靠谱的平台了。
1、点位有优势，出金比较快
2、平台监管参考外汇110相关介绍（只针对欧盟公民）
3、有中文客服，中文水平还比较高
4、交易界面很爽，手机端、桌面端全覆盖，下面的视频体会一下吧
5、还有个很大的优势，周末有盘
其他优势例如历史悠久、客户数量比较广泛、社区竞赛和模拟账户就不多说了，再说缺点：
1、中文客服不多，QQ基本不回复，邮件回复速度有点慢
2、交易客户端更新非常频繁，由于大陆网络的原因，有时候连不上
3、出金不是很方便——众所周知的原因，国内做外盘如果能够非常方便的出入金，那肯定是对赌盘无疑。
好了，就这些吧，其他慢慢体会。点击这里注册！
____________________________________________________________
风险提示：您的资金可能处于风险之中！
2017年8月3日星期四
2017年8月2日星期三
二元期权平台交易开发
玩二元期权最重要的是心态，筹码的把控，和其他外汇品种投资一样，投资的重点是资金管理。
下面我们来看看目前iqoption api的情况。
iqoption api 开源代码这个是比较早的，更新也比较频繁，是比较好的参考资源。桌面开发的架构可以借鉴vn.py架构，也可以借鉴 QUANTAXIS、ricequant等架构，甚至可以在odoo上进行二次开发。
——————————————————————————————————
IQ Option交易平台所提供的业务可被视为高风险业务，具备一定的风险性。在互联网的条件下，提供的金融产品和服务，您可能要承受巨大的投资损失，甚至丢失所有账户资金
2007年2月22日星期四
Maven和eclipse工具的合作
Maven和eclipse工具的合作
当有了以上的工程目录，无论是webapp工程，还是app，我们都希望在集成开发环境中开发。Maven如何和IDE集成。现在我们就来进行讲解。
-
首先要让eclipse知道Maven 2的repository（仓库）的路径。
因此要设置一个M2_REPO的变量为classpath。
可以使用命令行的方式来设置：
-
mvn -Declipse.workspace=
eclipse:add-maven-repo
还可以在eclipse中定义一个新的classpath变量通过在eclipse的菜单上选择Window> Preferences. 选择Java > Build Path > Classpath Variables page.
-
生成eclipse的工程文件。
使用命令行
-
mvn eclipse:eclipse
这样通过在eclipse的菜单上选择File >Import >Existing Projects into Workspace，就可以将工程导入eclipse中。
通过以上2个步骤，我们就可以利用eclipse来进行开发工作了。
-
Eclipse插件mavenide
同时在eclipse中我们可以下载一个maven的插件，用来辅助eclipse进行maven工程的开发工作。这个插件名称叫做mavenide。
这个插件可使用以下更新站点：http://m2eclipse.codehaus.org/
并且非常方便的是，这里还提供了一个flash的演示来介绍如何安装此插件，这个flash演示的观看地址在：
http://m2eclipse.codehaus.org/Installing_Maven_2.0_plugin_for_Eclipse.html
要正常使用此插件请注意以下问题：
eclipse使用3.1或以上版本。
Mavenide的插件为0.0.5不要安装错误了。
通过笔者在安装好此插件的一些使用后，看到了此插件的以下一些特性。
-
可以方便的添加依赖。
-
在编辑完pom.xml文档后，会自动检查此文档的格式是否正确。
-
可以将mvn的一些命令通过扩展工具的方式在eclipse中轻松执行。
相关文档：
使用Maven构造Turbine项目 - Dec 15, 2006
Maven 让事情变得简单 - Dec 15, 2006
在 Eclipse 中利用 Maven - Dec 15, 2006
Maven入门--概念与实例（转载） - Dec 15, 2006
用 Maven 做项目管理 - Dec 15, 2006
2007年2月6日星期二
Why Underdogs are the Smart Bet in Soccer Betting
给总是赢不了money的赌徒的建议-------------作者:Winder Liao
Underdog or favorite? It's a choice we make everyday throughout the Soccer season. While there are certainly times when favorites warrant our attention, my experience tells me that betting underdogs is the best way to make money in soccer betting. Here are 5 reasons why you should pay special attention to the dogs every season.
1. Not every win is created equal
Favorites Odds tends to be on the low side ranging from 1.70-1.85. It doesn't serve much value especially if you are betting big considering you risk $1000 on a singles even if you did win, you only managed a $700 to $825 profit. With a 3 bets/per day system which I'm adopting a typical scenario of 1 win 1 draw and 1 loss situation would result in a viguorish loss of $150-$300. However if you are betting on underdogs the odds tends to range from $1.975-$2.15 with the scenario of 1 win 1 draw and 1 loss situation would result in minimal viguorish loss or more often a profit due to the value odds.
2. Underdogs don't get any respect!
They don't get it from the public, sometimes leading to higher than deserved spreads. More importantly, they don't get it from their opposition. Good teams can sometimes take bad teams lightly (especially if players and coaches minds are on other things, like next week's tougher opponent). Research and an understanding of historical trends can reveal great situations in which underdogs are poised for an upset.
3. The Public Can't Help Itself
The average bettor loves the popular teams (favorites), often times pushing lines unreasonably high. In fact, almost every week, with the right research, you can spot teams that should be favorites but are getting points against a popular team that has been installed as a favorite due to the public "bandwagon effect"?
4. Got Courage?
Most bettors don't have the courage to go with certain underdogs. They see a (perceived) good team versus a (perceived) bad team and assume it won't be a contest. They have formed an opinion about how horrible some teams are based on a recent blowout or past personal gambling loss. Again, with the right combination of statistical and situational research, some undervalued dogs can be spotted each week. There are also certain situations in which bad teams have historically and reliably outperformed their average. Match that with a historically-proven situation in which favorites under-perform and you have yourself a reliable upset scenario.
5.What It All Means
Obviously just playing all underdogs is not the answer (that would yield you approximately 50% wins and a negative account balance). However, with the right research, you can spot some very high-value underdog winners each week.Periodic events
So far we have discussed probabilities in terms of outcomes either occurring or not occurring, but sometimes the gambler will wish to know the probability of an outcome occurring within a given time or during a given sequence of events. If a given event must occur exactly twice in 2 years, then if one year is chosen as a unit of time, and the continuous occurrences of the event are called E1, and E2, there are four possibilities:-
Year A Year B
1.E1,E2 ------
2.E1 E2
3.E2 E1
4.----- E1, E2
Note that these possibilities are similar to the tossing of two coins, and that care has been taken not to reduce the possibilities to three by combining 2 and 3 as one possibility.
It follows that if an event must occur exactly twice only in two years, the probability of it occurring at least once in either year is 3/4. There are three times within the table above in either year that the event occurs only once and one occurrence where it would not occur. Only in possibility 4 does the event not occur in year A. There is a formula to work out these probabilities.
If an event must occur exactly x times in a period divided equally into N smaller periods, then the probability of the event occurring at least once in any small period is
=(power(n,x)-(power((n-1),x)))/power(n,x)
Thus, if an event must occur four times in ten years, the probability of it occurring in the first two years is
=(POWER(5,4)-(POWER((5-1),4)))/POWER(5,4)
=((625-256))/625 = (369/625) = 0.5904 or much better than 50%.
The Chevalier de Mere, a rich Frenchman who liked gambling, was responsible for inviting the philosopher and mathematician Blaise Pascal to carry out some of the earliest work on probability theory.
De Mere played a gambling game in which he bet that he could throw a six in four throws of a die. De Mere progressed from this game to betting that with two dice he could throw a double six in 24 throws. It was known that the odds were in his favour with the first game, and gamblers of the time reckoned that as four is to six (the numbers of ways a die can fall) as 24 is to 36 (the ways two dice can fall), the second game should be favourable. The Chevalier de Mere was not satisfied with this assumption and asked Pascal to work out the true probabilities.
To work out these two problems it is necessary to work out the converse probabilities. The probability of not throwing a 6 in four throws is:-
=power((5/6),4)=625/1296
Therefore the probability of throwing at least one 6 is :-
=1-power((5/6),4) or 0.5177
As an even money proposition, therefore a bet to throw a six in four throws of a die is slightly in favour of the thrower. The probability of not throwing a double six in 24 throws is:-
=power((35/36),24)) = 0.5087
This means that the bet is (slightly) against the thrower.
Various formulae have been put forward to determine the number of throws necessary to make the throwing of a double-6 a better than even chance. The old gamblers' rule in operation in de Mere’s time relied on knowing the answer to the lowest number of throws necessary to give a probability of throwing 6 with a single die of more than 1/2. As has been said, this was known to be 4, which might be called the break-even number. According to the rule the break-even number for the double event (N2) is the probability of success on the single event (P1), known to be 1/6 (the probability of a 6 with one die), divided by the probability of success on the double event (P2), known to be 1/36 (the probability of a double-6 with two dice), multiplied by the break-even number of the single event (N1), known to be 4. Thus
n2=(p1/p2)*n1 by substitution n2=((1/6)/(1/36))x4, or n2=((36/6)x4)
In this equation n2=24, guessed correctly by the Chevalier de Mere to be wrong. Abraham de Moivre, in a book The Doctrine of Chances published in 1716, set out a formula for discovering the approximate break-even point (n) as:-
n=(0.6931/p)
(0.6931 is the “Natural” logarithm of 2). So this gives the answer to our problem as 24.9516. An approximate break even number of 25, which is correct.
This gives an effective break number of 25, which is correct, although de Moivre’s formula gives too high a number, which is only slightly too high when the probability is small, but may be critically too high when the probability is larger. For example, de Moivre's formula for the break-even number for throwing a 6 with one die gives n = 0.6931 x 6 = 4.1586, which gives an effective break-even number of 5, which is too high, 4 being correct, as we have found.
It is interesting that John Scarne, in his famous book Scarne's Complete Guide to Gambling, published in 1961, states that the odds to one should be multiplied by 0-6931. Thus his approximate answer to de Mere's problem is n = 0-6931 x 35 = 24.2585. This answer is too low, although it gives the correct effective break-even number as 25. Scarne's formula applied to throwing a 6 with a single die gives the answer n = 0-6931 x 5 = 3.4655, again slightly low, but giving the correct break-even number of 4. The third formula to find the break-even number is as follows:-
If the probability of the outcome is (1/a) then :-
n=(log 2/((log a)-(log(a-1))))
In this case, the logarithms are the ordinary logarithms, to base 10.
The break-even number for throwing a double 6 thus becomes:-
n = (log 2/(log 36 -log 35))
which, with the use of four figure log tables, gives n a value of 24.6721, thus giving 25 as the effective break-even number. For throwing a 6 with one die, n = 3.8005, confirming 4 as the effective number.
When the Chevalier de Mere asked Pascal to help with this problem Pascal provided him with his answer, and began a correspondence about probabilities with Pierre de Fermat, another French mathematician, which established probability theory as a new branch of mathematics.使用趋向理论进行足球打赌
By Joseph Linhard
Why is soccer betting popular?
If we were to compare other sports with soccer, soccer has the highest occurrences for weak team to beat a strong team down especially in English Premier League. Let's turn back the clock; can any of you recall the UEFA Championship final?? Clashed between Man.Utd and Bayern Munich in 1999 where Man.Utd successfully won Bayern Munich by 2 goals during 2 minutes injury time. For those who bet on Bayern Munich, how hard for punters to accept this, unfortunately this is the FACT. Well, as you can see, this is the most interesting part in soccer betting. There is a saying, “a football is round, therefore it might have unpredictable ending”.
What is the simple theory in betting world?
Everything in the world is sharing the same natural concept and also follows the same trend. There is no exception for soccer betting. The theory is simple. When a graph makes an incline, of course the line will keep climbing and stop at a stage. No matter how high it reaches or how low it drops, there is always a stop to it. I would confidently say that only in minor cases, the graph will move up and down continuously within a short period of time. As example, you could notice that most market share will always have gradual incline and then follow by long dropping line repeatedly. You could also notice that the rich gets richer and poor gets poorer. In sports betting, I believe some of you did experience before winning streaks which you kept winning non-stop even though you simply put your bet. In contrast when encounter down period, even if you work hard to make analysis or follow the bet of your lucky friends but finally lose too. Why? The only answer is natural concept and trend. We must agree and follow the trend.
How betting trend works in soccer betting?
The rule of thumb is do not be stubborn to confidently place bets on teams that continuously lost and have the thinking that they would make a come back. This is totally wrong. Maybe you will win at the end by follow this type of betting strategy but how much capital you need to have and how much you need to lose before you can win the bet. Based on the trend concept, if a team is keep losing, the graph for them is dropping, we should bet against them until the graph reach a pit stop. In contrast, if a team turnover from lose to win, we should start chase the team to win until stop stage. How simple is it? Win keeps winning and lose keeps losing.
Which team to bet from among of uncountable matches?
When using the trend concept in soccer betting, it is safer if we use it to bet on strong team and only focus on climbing graph. Meanwhile, we put our bet only on strong team when they are in win stage. The reason to choose strong team is they need points to secure their position at the top of the league table. In addition, strong team with higher strength could easily win if victory is a must.
Why is soccer betting popular?
If we were to compare other sports with soccer, soccer has the highest occurrences for weak team to beat a strong team down especially in English Premier League. Let's turn back the clock; can any of you recall the UEFA Championship final?? Clashed between Man.Utd and Bayern Munich in 1999 where Man.Utd successfully won Bayern Munich by 2 goals during 2 minutes injury time. For those who bet on Bayern Munich, how hard for punters to accept this, unfortunately this is the FACT. Well, as you can see, this is the most interesting part in soccer betting. There is a saying, “a football is round, therefore it might have unpredictable ending”.
What is the simple theory in betting world?
Everything in the world is sharing the same natural concept and also follows the same trend. There is no exception for soccer betting. The theory is simple. When a graph makes an incline, of course the line will keep climbing and stop at a stage. No matter how high it reaches or how low it drops, there is always a stop to it. I would confidently say that only in minor cases, the graph will move up and down continuously within a short period of time. As example, you could notice that most market share will always have gradual incline and then follow by long dropping line repeatedly. You could also notice that the rich gets richer and poor gets poorer. In sports betting, I believe some of you did experience before winning streaks which you kept winning non-stop even though you simply put your bet. In contrast when encounter down period, even if you work hard to make analysis or follow the bet of your lucky friends but finally lose too. Why? The only answer is natural concept and trend. We must agree and follow the trend.
How betting trend works in soccer betting?
The rule of thumb is do not be stubborn to confidently place bets on teams that continuously lost and have the thinking that they would make a come back. This is totally wrong. Maybe you will win at the end by follow this type of betting strategy but how much capital you need to have and how much you need to lose before you can win the bet. Based on the trend concept, if a team is keep losing, the graph for them is dropping, we should bet against them until the graph reach a pit stop. In contrast, if a team turnover from lose to win, we should start chase the team to win until stop stage. How simple is it? Win keeps winning and lose keeps losing.
Which team to bet from among of uncountable matches?
When using the trend concept in soccer betting, it is safer if we use it to bet on strong team and only focus on climbing graph. Meanwhile, we put our bet only on strong team when they are in win stage. The reason to choose strong team is they need points to secure their position at the top of the league table. In addition, strong team with higher strength could easily win if victory is a must.
Guide To Be A Successful Soccerpunter
Guide To Be A Successful Soccerpunter
作者Winder Liao
Why becomes a soccer bettor one may ask? Where it is considered a negative occupation where it is often regarded as non productive, immoral behaviour. well as for every other thing everything there is the pros n cons.if you able to use it to your advantage it could be becomes your full-time occupation or a second income. morever, soccer betting is a big thriving business where it is prevalent throughout the worldBy the use of statistics, experience and practice, an astute gambler can consistently beat the posted odds .however to do so one must behave in a manner consistent with success. one thing a successful bettor must do is to continually learn.
Handicapping
There is no single method that is considers the best method, everyones tackles the soccer problem differently,one thing for sure is the harder one works intelligently and practically and the more experience he has the more positive results he will realised.
Objective approach
The use of statistic to help the bettor to determine his picks. It should be noted that statistic are fundemental but its how they are used that makes the difference between winning and losing. however if everyone comes to the same conclusions the oddsmaker could still eliminate any advantages by adjusting the line to keep everyone guessing. either way it is to the bookies advantage.
Subjective approach
After yrs of handicapping the sub-conscious mind help the bettor to finalise his picks. when he starts to win the bettor will get carried away however if his results turns negative his emotions and his mind will short virtually making the bettor ineffective. it is extremely important the bettor at this time knows to hold back and observe for his form to pick up before betting again.
Trends
It should be noted that the best trends are those that are unique, valid and relatively unknown. any seasoned soccer bettor knows that once the trend becomes too popular the linesmen will adjust the line to leave people lost. when using trends you should notice whether it is getting stronger and weaker?
Bankroll mangement
Definition-the amount of money you set aside for betting and not hose for paying bills, groceries or money even when lost would not cause much unbalance in the bettors life.
How much to bet per game?
I would suggest 5% of your bankroll to be used for betting and not to bet more than 3 matches per day, reason because its very difficult to pick winners for every match and the most likely results are you will have a few winners and a few losers resulting in minimal bankroll growth which is the most likely results or worse lose all the bets which is highly possible. Another very important reason for this is you are able to gauage more accurately how much you will lose should you indeed lose.
Summary
To begin with, one must understands what he is up against, there is no method or systems that could contiunues to win every game , everyday, every week , month or year. good consistent handicapping means selecting more winners than losers. in order to be a successful bettor one must give lots of thoughts to why is the results this way ?and is there any reason behind it. when you manage to reveal the meaning behind it it is the time you feed back on the fat cow(bookmaker).
Soccer forum
I have seen a great prevalence use of soccer forums where soccer bettors post their picks. it is often noted that a lot of beginners try to note down those tipsters who is in hot form meaning those posting the corrects picks and then bet big following them .i strongly discourage people from doing so cause they were betting their hard earn money on people whom they never even meet or know and blindly follows theirs picks .this is very unhealthy why? cause the bettors himself have failed to come out with his own picks ,where he could be learning from his own mistakes and who knows those that are in the forum might be bookies themselves posting picks to lure the ignorant ones to be hooked.
Getting prepared mentally
One should be prepared mentally for losing and winnings cause either way it would lead to what I call a gambling syndrome. when the bettors keeps winnings he will be feeling over the moon during his hot streats and starts spending money like he is a king overnite however once he starts hitting the rough patch he will be losing sleeps if he bet a very substantial amount or can't concentrate in his work. this is very unhealthy and how to curb this problem?By following a systematic money-management programs.
Is it possible to strike rich in a very short period say 1 month? It is possible for a soccer bettor to strike rich but that is provided he is extremely lucky during that month and makes more than 60% corrects picks and of those correct picks are those he bets bigs and the remainder 40% lossess are those he bets small. however one knows that what goes up must come down and the winners are those who are able to tide over the rough patch and then starts winning back when his form is back
Is it important to know all about the soccer team , soccer players statistic n does that makes me a better soccer better?
The answer is no cause soccer betting arena is a place where the booksmakers earns their money if by knowing every details could make you rich then all the soccer writers, soccer magazines editors are the ones who are driving big cars and living in big houses.
What makes a true soccer bettor an expert?
The ability to convert a given bankroll into profits based on practical bankroll management program and against some standard of odds and over a large number of games and over a period of time.
How to become a true soccer expert?
1. He should keep a record of all that days opening odds and closing odds.
2. print out the each respective wide table.
3. Write down the score
4. reason why the results to be this way and is there any trends. of course in order to look for particular trends you need soccer records.
5. keep meticulous and honest records of his play decisions and their results. this will teach him his strength and weakness.
6. learn how to bet on his own handicapping in order to realize the greatest profit. he then must discipline his action and play in respect of this plan in order to get the best results.
7. learn how to tackle his emotions as well as personal problems out of his decisions. if this becomes too difficult he should stop playing.
8. be constantly on the alert to make changes to his handicapping methods and techniques.
9. set up a plan of action for bankroll management and stick diligently to it.
Does soccer betting involves luck?
Answer: no, cause soccer results is preplanned meaning before the matches starts the results is already out. If you have been betting soccer for a period of time and keeping soccer records deligiently you would have discovered a trend and realized that its a cycle.
So which leagues are you gd in?
for each people they they dwell in different leagues for me I specialize in only 4 leagues namely EPL, Italy serieA , Spanish primera and german bundesliga.
How to tackle soccer cups and normal weekend domestic league?
There are lots of soccer matches throughout the soccer season and the techniques involves in dealing with different matches differs differently and at different timing of the season.
Does the bookmaker lose money?
ANS : yes there are times but seldom. bookmakers lose money then the strong team win throughout the tournamnet eg euro2000 but that is short-term loss.They will continues to win the soccer punters money as long as there are soccer matches. Why? Cause there will be different opionions from different soccer punters just the vigourish/water money alone is able to cover their losses and that is excluding fixed match where they win even more. Another useful tool they are armed with is they understands that all gamblers have a common weakness. They bet bigger and bigger when winning and bets even bigger to chase their loss when losing.in either case it is to the bookmakers edge.
Contary to the belief of many where they think they are winning the bookmakers money , it is the other soccer punters ie, their friend's money whom they are winning.the only way to bust the bookmaker/bookies is not to bet or share part of the pie the bookmaker is having.
Soccer cups
There are namely a few more popular ones are uefa cup, uefa champions league, league cup, fa cup, worthington cup, international friendlies, Italian cup, Spanish cup.
Why is it important to do a form analysis on oneself?
It is because people when they are in a winning streats they tend to win more frequent cause I find that it got to do with ones confidence level. they becomes not afraid to lose and I believes that if one believe in himself strongly he will perform much better than one who is afraid of losing.
Betting strategy
Overview- When you do keep records you could trace your own form and make adjustment from there.
Flat betting strategy
This is the strategy I use when I am determining which way my form is going. up or down. Another reason to test out new leagues where I'm unfamiliar.
PROS - this strategy would produce a even amt of risk for money wagered but however if you are able to pick on the right team you could earn a average profit, CONS -but due to the water money and the increase in the no.of bets before you could see a tidy handsome profit this will constitue to be the downside.
Progressive betting strategy
I adopt the progressive betting strategy method which is to multiply my previous winnings by 0.5 and use it for the next bet which is the strategy I adopt when my form are good.ie when 3 or more wins consecutively. Reason why? There is a Chinese saying "hit the iron while its hot" which I find it to be very true cause there are many opportunities in soccerbetting where if you are able to recognize it and bet bigger than usual, PROS- there is a potential higher return rate then if you flat bet.CONS-when you do adjust your bet amt you are relatively exposing yourself to more risk this is the tradeoff where you could lose potentially more.
Reduced betting strategy
When do you adopt this is when you have been picking the wrong team all the time example say 3 straight lose which is very common caused I realized that this is the time where people starts to bet big to chase their loss. this is very wrong caused when one is down on luck or the bookmaker has adjusted the line to confuse the bettor they should stay calm n reduced their bets or not bet at all.PROS- reduced money lost and try to minimize serious damage to original bankroll.CONS-if the picks do win you could not cover back your previous loss due to reduction in wager.this is the trade-off.
Why is it important to find the right time frame before u bet and does it make a difference?
It is important because if now you are in a losing streats it is best to control oneself before you jump into it and wack hard to chase back your lossess most likely you will lose .it is best to make own prediction first and see if your form is back if it is slowly getting back now is time to jump in cause once you run out of bullets during your losing streats it is very difficult to fight back.
What is the True Winning Percentage of a Professional Soccer-punter?
Many people believe professional-level sports bettors win at least 60% of their bets. It's understandable that people think that, but it's just not true. The fact is, the difference between the percentage of bets won by successful sports bettors and the percentage of bets won by losers is relatively very small.
Anyone can expect to win 50 percent. After all, the only thing required is to flip a coin and pick a side. The bookmakers' profit comes from the difference between what a bettor must risk and what a bettor expects to win. Every time a player wins, the bookmaker withholds slightly more than 9 percent of the winnings ($1 for every $11 risked). Consequently, a bettor winning only half his bets will ultimately go broke.
Professional sports bettors, by comparison, rarely sustain a long term winning percentage higher than 57 or 58 percent, and it's often as low as 54 or 55 percent. People find that hard to believe, and they understandably get even more skeptical when told that, for a genuine professional-level sports bettor, a long term winning expectation of 60% or more is actually too high.
The measure of success of a sports handicapper is not his percentage of winning bets, but the relative amount of profit he made over any given period of time.
Live betting is one of the main sources of income for the bookmaker why?
Well before the match starts there is always large publicity about the coming fixtures for Live matches.They are often 2 strong team facing each other and they are most likely to be telecast throughout the world.why? It is because a lot of people likes to bet on sports that they are able to view live especially those recreation punters who gets real kick watching their favourites team play and also big-time soccer punters who bet 30K-50K per match.There is the jalan bet or live betting bet and the half-time bet which make it more interesting and more variety for punters to bet.These live matches are matches where the bookmakers makes lots of money through the vigourish and not forgetting fixed match.
Observations
How to you identify whether the match is fixed?
1.) During the match observe the 1st 10 mins if any team scores, the match it is mostly fixed.They will score at the most unimaginable timing like within 30 seconds or 3 mins are common signs.
2.) Pay attention to the speed of both team players.The team that will lose will tends to run slower than the other team.Another point to note is the team that is fixed to win they will fight with all their might to get to the ball and the one that is fixed to lose {note this also refers to team that gives ball but unable to cover the AH given} will miss even inches infront of the goal post.Sometimes the team that is fixed to lose will even score for the next team that is the own goal or they are extremely disorganised at the defence showing no effort in blocking the strikers attack.
3.)Not all footballers are great actors pay close attention to their body language, they will display great agonies while missing clear cut shots but their eyes are secretly laughing away some even had difficulty in controlling their facial expression ,occasionally they subconsciously look into the camera before diverting their eyes swiftly away.
4.)Coach odds decision to remove key players from the team substituting with a less superior player.consider this why would a coach remove that particular key striker that has just scored the crucial goal and try to defend the 1 goal lead well within the early 50 or 60 mins.
5.) biased refeering decision.legimate goals claimed as off-side, or clear penalty given as no foul are common signs.giving unessary penalty to team that don't deserve it.
What to do when you know its fixed?
1.) Don't bet big when its livematches.Try to observe 1st before you bet then bet during the 2nd half as thats where the bookies tricks reveals itself.
2.) you need to master the art of odds decoding before you are capable of betting big.
3.) Don't fully trust what you see in the 1st half as what is obvious is often a trap.
4.) Do not doubt the odds, the odds posted are often set in a way to trap the average punters ,so try to mold your thinking like a bookie and you will see much clearer.
作者Winder Liao
Why becomes a soccer bettor one may ask? Where it is considered a negative occupation where it is often regarded as non productive, immoral behaviour. well as for every other thing everything there is the pros n cons.if you able to use it to your advantage it could be becomes your full-time occupation or a second income. morever, soccer betting is a big thriving business where it is prevalent throughout the worldBy the use of statistics, experience and practice, an astute gambler can consistently beat the posted odds .however to do so one must behave in a manner consistent with success. one thing a successful bettor must do is to continually learn.
Handicapping
There is no single method that is considers the best method, everyones tackles the soccer problem differently,one thing for sure is the harder one works intelligently and practically and the more experience he has the more positive results he will realised.
Objective approach
The use of statistic to help the bettor to determine his picks. It should be noted that statistic are fundemental but its how they are used that makes the difference between winning and losing. however if everyone comes to the same conclusions the oddsmaker could still eliminate any advantages by adjusting the line to keep everyone guessing. either way it is to the bookies advantage.
Subjective approach
After yrs of handicapping the sub-conscious mind help the bettor to finalise his picks. when he starts to win the bettor will get carried away however if his results turns negative his emotions and his mind will short virtually making the bettor ineffective. it is extremely important the bettor at this time knows to hold back and observe for his form to pick up before betting again.
Trends
It should be noted that the best trends are those that are unique, valid and relatively unknown. any seasoned soccer bettor knows that once the trend becomes too popular the linesmen will adjust the line to leave people lost. when using trends you should notice whether it is getting stronger and weaker?
Bankroll mangement
Definition-the amount of money you set aside for betting and not hose for paying bills, groceries or money even when lost would not cause much unbalance in the bettors life.
How much to bet per game?
I would suggest 5% of your bankroll to be used for betting and not to bet more than 3 matches per day, reason because its very difficult to pick winners for every match and the most likely results are you will have a few winners and a few losers resulting in minimal bankroll growth which is the most likely results or worse lose all the bets which is highly possible. Another very important reason for this is you are able to gauage more accurately how much you will lose should you indeed lose.
Summary
To begin with, one must understands what he is up against, there is no method or systems that could contiunues to win every game , everyday, every week , month or year. good consistent handicapping means selecting more winners than losers. in order to be a successful bettor one must give lots of thoughts to why is the results this way ?and is there any reason behind it. when you manage to reveal the meaning behind it it is the time you feed back on the fat cow(bookmaker).
Soccer forum
I have seen a great prevalence use of soccer forums where soccer bettors post their picks. it is often noted that a lot of beginners try to note down those tipsters who is in hot form meaning those posting the corrects picks and then bet big following them .i strongly discourage people from doing so cause they were betting their hard earn money on people whom they never even meet or know and blindly follows theirs picks .this is very unhealthy why? cause the bettors himself have failed to come out with his own picks ,where he could be learning from his own mistakes and who knows those that are in the forum might be bookies themselves posting picks to lure the ignorant ones to be hooked.
Getting prepared mentally
One should be prepared mentally for losing and winnings cause either way it would lead to what I call a gambling syndrome. when the bettors keeps winnings he will be feeling over the moon during his hot streats and starts spending money like he is a king overnite however once he starts hitting the rough patch he will be losing sleeps if he bet a very substantial amount or can't concentrate in his work. this is very unhealthy and how to curb this problem?By following a systematic money-management programs.
Is it possible to strike rich in a very short period say 1 month? It is possible for a soccer bettor to strike rich but that is provided he is extremely lucky during that month and makes more than 60% corrects picks and of those correct picks are those he bets bigs and the remainder 40% lossess are those he bets small. however one knows that what goes up must come down and the winners are those who are able to tide over the rough patch and then starts winning back when his form is back
Is it important to know all about the soccer team , soccer players statistic n does that makes me a better soccer better?
The answer is no cause soccer betting arena is a place where the booksmakers earns their money if by knowing every details could make you rich then all the soccer writers, soccer magazines editors are the ones who are driving big cars and living in big houses.
What makes a true soccer bettor an expert?
The ability to convert a given bankroll into profits based on practical bankroll management program and against some standard of odds and over a large number of games and over a period of time.
How to become a true soccer expert?
1. He should keep a record of all that days opening odds and closing odds.
2. print out the each respective wide table.
3. Write down the score
4. reason why the results to be this way and is there any trends. of course in order to look for particular trends you need soccer records.
5. keep meticulous and honest records of his play decisions and their results. this will teach him his strength and weakness.
6. learn how to bet on his own handicapping in order to realize the greatest profit. he then must discipline his action and play in respect of this plan in order to get the best results.
7. learn how to tackle his emotions as well as personal problems out of his decisions. if this becomes too difficult he should stop playing.
8. be constantly on the alert to make changes to his handicapping methods and techniques.
9. set up a plan of action for bankroll management and stick diligently to it.
Does soccer betting involves luck?
Answer: no, cause soccer results is preplanned meaning before the matches starts the results is already out. If you have been betting soccer for a period of time and keeping soccer records deligiently you would have discovered a trend and realized that its a cycle.
So which leagues are you gd in?
for each people they they dwell in different leagues for me I specialize in only 4 leagues namely EPL, Italy serieA , Spanish primera and german bundesliga.
How to tackle soccer cups and normal weekend domestic league?
There are lots of soccer matches throughout the soccer season and the techniques involves in dealing with different matches differs differently and at different timing of the season.
Does the bookmaker lose money?
ANS : yes there are times but seldom. bookmakers lose money then the strong team win throughout the tournamnet eg euro2000 but that is short-term loss.They will continues to win the soccer punters money as long as there are soccer matches. Why? Cause there will be different opionions from different soccer punters just the vigourish/water money alone is able to cover their losses and that is excluding fixed match where they win even more. Another useful tool they are armed with is they understands that all gamblers have a common weakness. They bet bigger and bigger when winning and bets even bigger to chase their loss when losing.in either case it is to the bookmakers edge.
Contary to the belief of many where they think they are winning the bookmakers money , it is the other soccer punters ie, their friend's money whom they are winning.the only way to bust the bookmaker/bookies is not to bet or share part of the pie the bookmaker is having.
Soccer cups
There are namely a few more popular ones are uefa cup, uefa champions league, league cup, fa cup, worthington cup, international friendlies, Italian cup, Spanish cup.
Why is it important to do a form analysis on oneself?
It is because people when they are in a winning streats they tend to win more frequent cause I find that it got to do with ones confidence level. they becomes not afraid to lose and I believes that if one believe in himself strongly he will perform much better than one who is afraid of losing.
Betting strategy
Overview- When you do keep records you could trace your own form and make adjustment from there.
Flat betting strategy
This is the strategy I use when I am determining which way my form is going. up or down. Another reason to test out new leagues where I'm unfamiliar.
PROS - this strategy would produce a even amt of risk for money wagered but however if you are able to pick on the right team you could earn a average profit, CONS -but due to the water money and the increase in the no.of bets before you could see a tidy handsome profit this will constitue to be the downside.
Progressive betting strategy
I adopt the progressive betting strategy method which is to multiply my previous winnings by 0.5 and use it for the next bet which is the strategy I adopt when my form are good.ie when 3 or more wins consecutively. Reason why? There is a Chinese saying "hit the iron while its hot" which I find it to be very true cause there are many opportunities in soccerbetting where if you are able to recognize it and bet bigger than usual, PROS- there is a potential higher return rate then if you flat bet.CONS-when you do adjust your bet amt you are relatively exposing yourself to more risk this is the tradeoff where you could lose potentially more.
Reduced betting strategy
When do you adopt this is when you have been picking the wrong team all the time example say 3 straight lose which is very common caused I realized that this is the time where people starts to bet big to chase their loss. this is very wrong caused when one is down on luck or the bookmaker has adjusted the line to confuse the bettor they should stay calm n reduced their bets or not bet at all.PROS- reduced money lost and try to minimize serious damage to original bankroll.CONS-if the picks do win you could not cover back your previous loss due to reduction in wager.this is the trade-off.
Why is it important to find the right time frame before u bet and does it make a difference?
It is important because if now you are in a losing streats it is best to control oneself before you jump into it and wack hard to chase back your lossess most likely you will lose .it is best to make own prediction first and see if your form is back if it is slowly getting back now is time to jump in cause once you run out of bullets during your losing streats it is very difficult to fight back.
What is the True Winning Percentage of a Professional Soccer-punter?
Many people believe professional-level sports bettors win at least 60% of their bets. It's understandable that people think that, but it's just not true. The fact is, the difference between the percentage of bets won by successful sports bettors and the percentage of bets won by losers is relatively very small.
Anyone can expect to win 50 percent. After all, the only thing required is to flip a coin and pick a side. The bookmakers' profit comes from the difference between what a bettor must risk and what a bettor expects to win. Every time a player wins, the bookmaker withholds slightly more than 9 percent of the winnings ($1 for every $11 risked). Consequently, a bettor winning only half his bets will ultimately go broke.
Professional sports bettors, by comparison, rarely sustain a long term winning percentage higher than 57 or 58 percent, and it's often as low as 54 or 55 percent. People find that hard to believe, and they understandably get even more skeptical when told that, for a genuine professional-level sports bettor, a long term winning expectation of 60% or more is actually too high.
The measure of success of a sports handicapper is not his percentage of winning bets, but the relative amount of profit he made over any given period of time.
Live betting is one of the main sources of income for the bookmaker why?
Well before the match starts there is always large publicity about the coming fixtures for Live matches.They are often 2 strong team facing each other and they are most likely to be telecast throughout the world.why? It is because a lot of people likes to bet on sports that they are able to view live especially those recreation punters who gets real kick watching their favourites team play and also big-time soccer punters who bet 30K-50K per match.There is the jalan bet or live betting bet and the half-time bet which make it more interesting and more variety for punters to bet.These live matches are matches where the bookmakers makes lots of money through the vigourish and not forgetting fixed match.
Observations
How to you identify whether the match is fixed?
1.) During the match observe the 1st 10 mins if any team scores, the match it is mostly fixed.They will score at the most unimaginable timing like within 30 seconds or 3 mins are common signs.
2.) Pay attention to the speed of both team players.The team that will lose will tends to run slower than the other team.Another point to note is the team that is fixed to win they will fight with all their might to get to the ball and the one that is fixed to lose {note this also refers to team that gives ball but unable to cover the AH given} will miss even inches infront of the goal post.Sometimes the team that is fixed to lose will even score for the next team that is the own goal or they are extremely disorganised at the defence showing no effort in blocking the strikers attack.
3.)Not all footballers are great actors pay close attention to their body language, they will display great agonies while missing clear cut shots but their eyes are secretly laughing away some even had difficulty in controlling their facial expression ,occasionally they subconsciously look into the camera before diverting their eyes swiftly away.
4.)Coach odds decision to remove key players from the team substituting with a less superior player.consider this why would a coach remove that particular key striker that has just scored the crucial goal and try to defend the 1 goal lead well within the early 50 or 60 mins.
5.) biased refeering decision.legimate goals claimed as off-side, or clear penalty given as no foul are common signs.giving unessary penalty to team that don't deserve it.
What to do when you know its fixed?
1.) Don't bet big when its livematches.Try to observe 1st before you bet then bet during the 2nd half as thats where the bookies tricks reveals itself.
2.) you need to master the art of odds decoding before you are capable of betting big.
3.) Don't fully trust what you see in the 1st half as what is obvious is often a trap.
4.) Do not doubt the odds, the odds posted are often set in a way to trap the average punters ,so try to mold your thinking like a bookie and you will see much clearer.
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